Running a Predicted Log Race

A "Predicted Log Race" is, in fact, not a race at all. It's a contest that measures the navigation ability of the captain and crew. A prescribed course is assigned for all participants to follow. The participant first plots the course to compute the distance of each leg and then computes the time to run each leg. The participants predicted times are submitted to the race committee before the race. The crew is not permitted any timing devices during the race with the exception of the prescribed timed runs. An observer is assigned who carries the only clock and records the times made good. After the race, the predicted times are compared with the actual times and scored by dividing the total seconds error by the predicted time.

The QE Too Wins First Place Class II in the
Gig Harbor Yacht Club
2007 Invitational Navigation Contest

This race included currents which had to be calculated into the predicted run times. Depending on the current, a correction to the heading also has to be taken into consideration. In addition, this prescribed course included four timed runs, for which the crew is allowed to use a stopwatch for these legs only.
Currents
>In Colvos Passage
In Colvos Passage
On Autopilot
Predicted Log Race
A laptop computer is kept running during the race, recording the actual track using GPS, but with the lid closed. It can then be viewed after the race to see how well the crew did. The blue line in the diagram to the right is the actual track. Even though the track is run on autopilot and the wake makes it appear that the boat is going strait, variations in the current cause deviations from the intended track.

Navigator and Skipper
Navigator and Skipper
Observer and Skipper
Observer and Skipper
The Vagabond Behind Us
The Vagabond Behind Us
Actual Run
The Actual Track (in blue)

The Results

Actual Run
BoatContestantNavigatorYacht
Club
Percent
Error
Place
OA
=============================================================
LAUGHIN PLACEChuck IrwinKevin KohlerGHYC3.7592%1
MOUSE TRAPFred ColeLinda ColePOYC3.9053%2
TWASIDon LarsonCarolieGHYC4.0671%3
Class 1
SOLMARChuck SilvernailConnie SilvernailBYC4.6501%7
SCHOTTISCHE IVBob JohnsonPat JohnsonPYC5.9053%10
CASCADIADick SappMary SappGHYC8.6912%15
40 CUBITSDennis SheehanJulie SheehanPYC9.4255%16
Class 2
QE TOOCarl TenningPhilip TenningHBYC4.5644%5
VAGABONDDick TimmermanSylvia TimmermanQCYC5.3498%9
FIDALGOJim AndersonLinda AndersonGHYC6.5276%12
CAMELOTAlan LeingangMyriam LeingangGHYC7.0714%14
Class 3
THE TILLIEBill AndersonTrish AndersonQCYC4.2821%4
Royal ChinookMike BurtonDavid CoverGHYC4.6310%6
NORWESTERJerry DownerShirley DownerGHYC4.8381%8
PEACHY KEENMike HenryBillie HenryBYC6.1541%11
GENERAL QUARTERSGeorge BabbittIan BabbittGHYC6.7050%13
My Prediction for the QCYC 2012 First of the Season Link to FOS Prediction


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